Provincial projections of greenhouse gas emissions

B.C. projects future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to assess progress toward climate goals and the impact of climate policies. These projections are updated annually.

On this page

• B.C.'s emissions estimates
• Information on modelling
• Near-term outlook to 2026
• CleanBC projections to 2030

B.C.'s emissions estimates

In keeping with commitments in the Climate Change Accountability Act, B.C. complements its annual reporting on historical GHG emissions with estimates of GHG emissions for the years ahead.

Information on modelling

B.C. uses modelling as a tool to analyze climate policy and its impact on provincial GHG emissions. Modelling assumptions are updated as new data becomes available. 

Even complex models do not fully account for all the factors that will shape the future, such as the emergence of new technologies and global shocks like pandemics and wars. The resulting projections are not intended to predict the future, only to help us understand how different choices and changes could affect our path forward.

Near-term outlook to 2026

B.C.’s near-term outlook estimates emissions for the four years following the most recently available emissions data – up to and including 2026. The outlook suggests a decline in emissions for 2023 through 2026, taking into account substantial uncertainty about their future trajectory.

The forecasted emissions decline from 65.6 MtCO₂e to 65.2 MtCO₂e in 2023, 64.7 MtCO₂e in 2024, 64.1 MtCO₂e in 2025 and 63.4 MtCO₂e in 2026. This forecasting exercise is useful for understanding how emissions may evolve based on observed trends, but it may not capture all factors that are expected to impact emissions over the coming years (including scheduled changes in CleanBC policy stringency). To account for uncertainty, B.C. estimates that in 2026 there is a 50 percent likelihood that emissions will be within +/-2.6 MtCO₂e of the point estimate and an 80 percent likelihood that emissions will be within +/-6.4 MtCO₂e of the point estimate.

CleanBC projections to 2030

Emissions projections to 2030 reflect the expected longer-term impact of CleanBC policies. These projections are developed through energy-economy modelling of various scenarios to assess policy-driven changes in the trajectory of emissions. Our latest projection suggests that CleanBC will mitigate the emissions impacts of population and economic growth and lower emissions over time.

In previous years, the projection to 2030 relied on a scenario where all CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 policies and programs were fully implemented.

This year, the projection relies on scenarios that consider the current policy landscape:

• Implemented scenario - includes all CleanBC policies and measures in place as of April 1, 2025
• Defined scenario - adds CleanBC policies and measures that are sufficiently advanced in policy development to be accurately assessed through the modelling exercise

 A reference scenario, which does not consider CleanBC, continues to be used for comparison.

Progress towards B.C.'s 2030 targets

Projection results

Under the implemented scenario, B.C.’s emissions decline by 20 percent from 2007 levels, achieving 50 percent of the 2030 GHG reduction target. The defined scenario shows slightly more reductions, with emissions declining by 21 percent from 2007 levels, achieving 52 percent of the 2030 target. To meet the 2030 target, an additional 13 MtCO₂e of reductions would be required.  

The current policy landscape does not put the Province on track to meet its 2030 targets. However, B.C. is reducing emissions intensity while growing a cleaner economy. Between 2007 and 2022, B.C.'s population grew by 25 percent (compared to the national population growth of 18 percent) while net GHG emissions per person declined by 21.6 percent.

Additionally, a number of measures developed under CleanBC, such as the zero-carbon building code, will begin reducing emissions around 2030, or shortly thereafter, helping the Province to make progress towards our targets in 2040 and 2050.