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Climate and tree selection

Last updated on February 24, 2026

Due to climate change trees now grow in ecological conditions different from the conditions in which their ancestors grew. Due to the quickening pace of climate change, tree populations can not migrate naturally to new areas or adapt through natural selection and can become weak and stressed, or maladapted, to their local environment.

Forest tree species often play a key role in their ecosystem. When trees within a stand become stressed due to climate change, the rest of the ecosystem and dependent organisms including insects, birds and plant life dependent on trees, like lichens,  are also affected. The province has developed adaptation strategies to manage climate stress, such as species diversification and assisted migration. The province has also created tools for assessing drought conditions as moisture levels drop due to climate change. 

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Species diversification

Increasing species diversity in forest management strategies may help buffer the negative impacts of climate change and make forests more resilient when faced with extreme weather events.

For example, regenerating a stand or landscape with a range of species that are ecologically-suitable for a site may:

  • Help reduce potential losses due to forest health and other climate-related agents, and
  • Mitigate some of the uncertainty in determining which species in a stand will perform well over the rotation

Read the Chief Forester's Memo on Stand and Landscape Level Species Composition (PDF, 381KB)

Assisted migration

Assisted migration refers to physically moving seed sources beyond their current climates. Typically, seed sources are both moved north and to higher elevations in a manner that mimics recent observed climate change and accounts for expected shifts in climate over the next few decades

Planting seed sources and species that are adapted to current and future climates takes advantage of finely tuned plant-climate adaptations that have developed through millennia of natural selection to help maintain forest health and productivity. Interim assisted migration measures have been implemented and upper elevation transfer limits have increased for most species.

Further resources about assisted migration can be found in Assisted Migration: Adapting forest management to a changing climate (PDF, 270KB)

Climate based-seed transfer 

British Columbia’s seed transfer system is a climate-based science, policy and decision support framework linking to ecologically suitable species information to support tree species selection decisions for future (projected) planting sites.

Visit Chief Forester's Standards for Seed Use for additional information.

Stand level drought risk

The stand level drought risk tool is an Excel application that generates calculations regarding the relative risk of drought-induced mortality for tree species based on BEC unit and relative soil moisture regime. The tool provides an estimate of drought risk for the current climate, as well as predicted drought risks for climates in 2020, 2050 and 2080. The tool currently contains data for the Prince George and Cranbrook Timber Supply Areas (TSAs).

Source: Delong, S. C., H. Griesbauer, C. R. Nitschke.2011 FFESC Project B5: Risk Analysis and Decision Support Tool Final Report Appendix 1. Assessing the risk of drought in British Columbia forests using a stand-level water balance approach.

Drought Risk Assessment Tool

Forest Drought Risk Assessment Tool (ForDRAT) provides estimates of stand-level drought risk for various B.C. tree species (Interior only at this point). Drought risk estimates are provided across different biogeoclimatic units and relative soil moisture regimes for both current and future climates.

Drought Information Portal 

The Drought Information Portal is a single source to access drought levels across geographic regions in British Columbia. The maps provide information on current and historical provincial drought levels, and other information related to drought monitoring.

 

For more information on the impacts climate change is having on B.C.'s ecosystems and how the province can improve responses to climate change, visit the Future Forest Ecosystem Centre.