Progress to emissions targets

B.C.’s 2020 emissions

In 2020, B.C.’s net emissions, as reported in the Provincial Inventory, were down to 63.5 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e). That’s down 4% compared to 2019 and 3% compared to the base year of 2007. Our per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were also down by 5% and 19% respectively.  

An important consideration when viewing these results is that this reporting period (to December 2020) only partially covers the start-up phase of CleanBC – launched in December 2018. Many policies and programs, including those announced as part of the 2021 CleanBC Roadmap to 2030 (Roadmap), are expected to reduce emissions in the coming years.

Emissions by sector

To help meet provincial GHG targets, in March 2021 the Province established new 2030 sectoral emission reduction targets for four sectors, with 2007 as the baseline: 

B.C. estimates GHG emissions as a range to represent uncertainties in data and modelling. This could include different COVID-19 recovery scenarios, oil and natural gas price forecasts and different levels of industrial growth.

Near-term outlook to 2025

B.C.’s near-term outlook estimates emissions for the four years after the most recently available emissions data and for 2025. This year’s outlook suggests that emissions are likely to rebound in 2021 as economic activity returns closer to levels prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Emissions will then continue following a downward trajectory as CleanBC policies begin to take hold.

CleanBC projections to 2025 and 2030

Each year we update our model with the most recent data to estimate how close our current and planned CleanBC actions will bring us to our 2030 emissions targets.    

This year’s report includes actions from the Roadmap to 2030, released in late 2021, which lays the path to reaching our 2030 climate targets and provides a foundation for achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Pathway to meeting B.C.'s 2025 and 2030 targets

Based on current commitments, we expect to see a gap of approximately 0.8 MtCO₂e towards our 2030 target of 39.3 MtCO₂e. This would bring B.C. 97% of the way to its 2030 emissions target.

The 2030 gap is due to changes in the National Inventory Report and the Provincial Inventory, and to improvements in forecasting that are reflected in the modelling. The commitments in the Roadmap have not changed.

For the 2025 target, the model estimates that we will achieve 85% of the target (a gap of 1.6 MtCO₂e).

Given that we are currently projecting small gaps to our targets, the Province will be exploring the following options to address them:

• Increasing the stringency of existing Roadmap commitments
• Pursuing emissions reduction opportunities in sectors for which there are fewer targeted measures in the CleanBC Roadmap (e.g., agriculture and forest management)

Additional information on modelling 

Additional information on the latest CleanBC modelling can be found in the Provincial Forecast of greenhouse gas emissions. Information on emissions trends and methodology can be found in the Provincial Inventory of greenhouse gas emissions.

Climate-related spending

Carbon tax revenues

A price on carbon pollution is one of the most effective and economically efficient ways to reduce GHG emissions. The table below outlines the Province’s total carbon tax revenues and the incremental carbon tax revenues resulting from rate increases above $30 per tonne for 2020/21 through 2022/23.

On April 1, 2022, the carbon tax increased to $50 per tonne. 

Carbon tax revenues, illustrating tax increase impacts, by fiscal year

$ Millions	Actual 2020/21	Actual 2021/22	Forecast 2022/23
Carbon tax rate, $ per tonne	40	45	50
Total carbon tax revenue	1,683	2.011	2,261
Annual revenue growth	1	328	250
Revenue growth due to base (i.e., changes to consumption)	1	92	28
Revenue growth due to rate increases	-	236	222
Revenue growth due to rate increases - Cumulative Totals*	414	650	872